Democratic voters are not starved for choice next primary season. As soon as one candidate drops out, another jumps in to fill the void. This is caused by the fact all the leading candidates have significant issues and there is continual disagreement between the moderate and progressive wings of the party, making a selection painful, much like the Clinton-Sanders polarization of 2016.
Cognizant of how that infighting, corruption, and a candidate with a checkered past partially led to Trump being elected, voters this election season want to make sure the candidate they select has: no demons in the closet, an ability to bring the party at least somewhat together, and most importantly, be able to defeat Donald Trump. Since there is no obvious candidate fulfilling these requirements, we are seeing recent entrants like Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick opportunistically attempting to take advantage of this uncertainty.
Trying to predict the future is usually a fool’s errand, but absent much useful data at this point in the election, let me take a stab at explaining why I think Andrew Yang is the most likely candidate to come out on top.
- Political infighting
Yang fills many roles unoccupied by anyone else in the Democratic primary, but what is most striking upon analysis is that he has no direct competition for votes. Moderate Biden votes will be siphoned by Bloomberg and Buttigieg. Sanders and Warren will split the progressives. Patrick is trying to use an Obama-style inspirational and uniting tenor that Cory Booker tried to implement, with inexplicable failure. Yang is an outsider unaffected by all of this and he appeals to the undecided voter looking for a compromise candidate that isn’t a part of any ideological side. Given the saturation of candidates and the crossover of similar views, most Democratic voters figure to be undecided in their votes, leading to a numbers-game advantage for Yang.
Additionally, his non-governmental background and forward looking policies like UBI will make him stand out above the fray. His message is based around the future and how different society will be with the upcoming technological advancements coming out of Silicon Valley and how no other politician is prepared for or understands these issues as clearly as he does. Again, this will play out well because of its preciseness and uniqueness, something no other candidate possesses and is extremely…